The replacement of the 50km with the 35km in the "major events" also entailed the adaptation of many National Federations over the same distance for their national championships.
It is true, however, that in past years the 35km was often used in the early season competitions as an intermediate stage of the race for those who would then participate in the longer event.
It is equally true, however, that the "entry standards" were fixed on the longer distance and therefore the number of races on the 35km was certainly not comparable even in terms of importance to that of the 50km.
To give our readers an idea of what next season will bring, we have reconstructed the history of the average speeds of the years from 2010 to 2021 inclusive.
We did it both:
- in calculating the average speed of the "best performer"
- and also in calculating, as done for the 20km and 50km, the average speed of the top 20 athletes
but since we are in a rather new initial phase, at least from a statistical point of view, we have also decided to take into consideration the average speed of the top 10 athletes in the seasonal lists.
A few very brief comments
In 2021 the average speed expressed in the 35km by the seasonal leader was the lowest in the years taken into consideration (13.87 km/hr), while the relative average values observed on the top 10 athletes (13.64 km/hr) and on the the top 20 athletes (13.51 km/hr) had experienced lower values, even by a lot, in previous seasons.
In our opinion, the explanation is quite simple. There is no contribution from the performances of the athletes from Japan, who have always competed on the 50km. This affects the speed expressed by the "best performer" since from 2018, with the exclusion of 2020, in the 50km the "best performers" had always been an athlete from the Rising Sun.
At the moment the highest speeds expressed by the best performers in the eleven years considered are the following:
- 2018 season: 14.49 km/hr - Sergey Bakulin in Sochi, RUS on February 19 (2:24:53)
- 2012 season: 14.39 km/hr - Mihail Ryzhov in Sochi, RUS on February 18 (2:25:58)
- 2010 season: 14.36 km/hr - Alex Schwazer in Montalto di Castro, ITA on January 24 (2:26:16)
The number of athletes in the top 20 per Nation
In the last two seasons the following Nations have been represented in the first 20 athletes of the 25km
| Nation | 2021 athletes | 2020 athletes | Difference |
| | | | |
| Russia | 4 | 6 | - 2 |
| Ukraine | 3 | 3 | - |
| Italy | 3 | 3 | - |
| Guatemala | 2 | 1 | + 1 |
| China | - | 3 | - 3 |
| Ecuador | - | 3 | - 3 |
| Hungary | - | 1 | - 1 |
| Finland France | 1 1 | - - | + 1 + 1 |
| Portugal | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Greece | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Poland | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Colombia | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Slovakia | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Ireland | 1 | - | + 1 |
But if we limit the analysis of the last two seasons only to the first 10 athletes of the 35km, the previous table becomes
| Nation | 2021 athletes | 2020 athletes | Difference |
| | | | |
| Russia | 3 | 5 | - 2 |
| Ukraine | 1 | - | + 1 |
| Italy | 1 | 1 | - |
| Guatemala | 2 | 1 | + 1 |
| China | - | 3 | - 3 |
| Finland France | 1 1 | - - | + 1 + 1 |
| Portugal | 1 | - | + 1 |
What prospect of speed in the near future?
The world leader of the 2021 season in 50km, Maruo Satoshi (JPN) had obtained at the passage to the 35km:
- in Wajima, JPN (April 11): 2:30:11 (which corresponds to an average speed of 13.98 km/hr) with these split times every 5km (22:22; 22:04; 21:28; 20:59 ; 20:59; 20:56)
- improving the same passage made two seasons earlier on 27.1.2019 in Takahata, JPN (2:30:45).
If the climatic conditions allow it, it is therefore not crazy to hypothesize by a top athlete, a result in the next season in a range between 2:25:00 and 2:26:00.
It would be like saying that we can expect an average speed in a range between 14.48 km/hr and 14.38 km/hr.
And if any athlete coming from the 20km wished to venture into the 35km with adequate training we believe that these average speeds can still undergo increases.
In short, we expect, in the course of one or two seasons, to see the 15.00 km/hr wall broken in 35km, which for many years has been a prerogative of the athletes who have dedicated themselves to the 20km.